Predicting replicability—Analysis of survey and prediction market data from large-scale forecasting projects
نویسندگان
چکیده
The reproducibility of published research has become an important topic in science policy. A number large-scale replication projects have been conducted to gauge the overall specific academic fields. Here, we present analysis data from four studies which sought forecast outcomes social and behavioural sciences, using human experts who participated prediction markets answered surveys. Because findings replicated predicted each individual study was small, pooling offers opportunity evaluate hypotheses regarding performance surveys at a higher power. In total, peer beliefs were elicited for 103 findings. We find there is information within scientific community about replicability findings, that both can be used elicit aggregate this information. Our results show determine direct replications with 73% accuracy (n=103). Both market prices average survey responses are correlated (0.581 0.564 respectively, p < .001). also found significant relationship between p-values original outcomes. dataset made available through R package pooledmaRket further towards as markets.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: PLOS ONE
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1932-6203']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248780