Predicting replicability—Analysis of survey and prediction market data from large-scale forecasting projects

نویسندگان

چکیده

The reproducibility of published research has become an important topic in science policy. A number large-scale replication projects have been conducted to gauge the overall specific academic fields. Here, we present analysis data from four studies which sought forecast outcomes social and behavioural sciences, using human experts who participated prediction markets answered surveys. Because findings replicated predicted each individual study was small, pooling offers opportunity evaluate hypotheses regarding performance surveys at a higher power. In total, peer beliefs were elicited for 103 findings. We find there is information within scientific community about replicability findings, that both can be used elicit aggregate this information. Our results show determine direct replications with 73% accuracy (n=103). Both market prices average survey responses are correlated (0.581 0.564 respectively, p < .001). also found significant relationship between p-values original outcomes. dataset made available through R package pooledmaRket further towards as markets.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

simulation and experimental studies for prediction mineral scale formation in oil field during mixing of injection and formation water

abstract: mineral scaling in oil and gas production equipment is one of the most important problem that occurs while water injection and it has been recognized to be a major operational problem. the incompatibility between injected and formation waters may result in inorganic scale precipitation in the equipment and reservoir and then reduction of oil production rate and water injection rate. ...

An Efficient Data Replication Strategy in Large-Scale Data Grid Environments Based on Availability and Popularity

The data grid technology, which uses the scale of the Internet to solve storage limitation for the huge amount of data, has become one of the hot research topics. Recently, data replication strategies have been widely employed in distributed environment to copy frequently accessed data in suitable sites. The primary purposes are shortening distance of file transmission and achieving files from ...

متن کامل

Metadata Exploitation in Large-scale Data Migration Projects

The inherent complexity of large-scale information integration efforts has led to the proliferation of numerous metadata capabilities to improve upon project management, quality control and governance. In this paper, we utilise complex information integration projects in the context of SAP application consolidation to analyse several new metadata capabilities, which enable improved governance a...

متن کامل

A detailed process model for large scale data migration projects

Data migration projects might sound exotic. They are not. Instead, they are common in all medium and large enterprises, e.g., when replacing applications with new (standard) software or when consolidating the IT landscape in the aftermath of mergers and acquisitions activities. Generalpurpose methodologies such as Scrum focus on managing projects. However, they do not discuss (data-migration) d...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: PLOS ONE

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1932-6203']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0248780